CBS Research Chief Sees 9.5 Percent Broadcast Networks Ad Growth in 2016

CBS Corp.’s arch investigate officer David Poltrack pronounced Monday that promote network TV promotion income should grow strongly in 2016 after a flattish 2015.

Speaking during a UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in New York, he expected that promote networks would see 2016 ad income arise 9.5 percent, or 5 percent in underlying expansion practiced for Rio Summer Olympics spending. “We competence even see double-digit growth,” that would be a initial such benefit given 2004, he said, acknowledging that this will be seen as a contrarian and bullish forecast.

Poltrack on Monday also expected expansion in consumer and selling spending and other certain mercantile trends assisting ad momentum, along with a possibility to win dollars from tip wire networks that have seen ratings declines. “2016 stands to be a really clever year” for a promote networks, he summarized.

A year ago, Poltrack had expected that promote ad income would sojourn “stable though not growing” by during slightest mid-2015. Overall, he had projected flattish promotion income in 2015, or expansion of 2 percent on an underlying basement when adjusting information for a Olympics boost in 2014.

On Monday, Poltrack pronounced that promote networks ad income has been improving in each entertain of 2015, definition final sum for 2015 should be tighten to what he had expected for this year. He reliable clever separate ad marketplace trends and his forecast. 

For 2016, a clever separate marketplace expected will meant “a clever upfront,” Poltrack added.

The investigate guru pronounced he continues to trust in a preeminence of promote TV and added: “I see zero on a setting that will bluster that preeminence.”

He focused a apportionment of his display privately addressing a advantages of digital contra TV ads. While TV still commands a lion’s share of a tellurian ad pie, digital has been flourishing steadily, and ad forecasters Monday morning pronounced digital will pass TV as a biggest ad difficulty in a entrance years. Digital should pass TV by a finish of 2017 globally, and in 2016 in a U.S., according to Magna Global.

Poltrack pronounced that advertisers “are refocusing on a executive purpose of radio advertising” in their selling plans. And he argued that TV is all about reach, not efficiency, observant efficiency-focused digital-centric approaches that have turn some-more renouned have during times failed. “Change is now underway,” he said.

Poltrack pronounced digital’s strech was reduction than TV’s and pronounced that “digital campaigns work improved when upheld by clever promote campaigns.” He presented information ancillary his comments and resolved that a final thing an advertiser should do is “using TV dollars to comment a digital efforts.”

About tumble TV deteriorate trends, Poltrack pronounced it was expected there would be make-goods for networks formed on trends so far. But he pronounced any make-goods should be docile since reduction upfront register was sold. NBC and Fox are in line with final year’s opening this tumble season, while ABC is down, he said.

Here are some other nuggets from Poltrack’s renouned annual presentation:

* Netflix homes in a U.S. are now during 42 percent contra 36 percent final year, adult half as most as final year.

* CBS primetime shows this deteriorate have a sum assembly opposite platforms of 13.8 million, adult from 13.3 million 10 years ago. 

* In 2011, 47 percent of new shows were detected around live linear TV viewing. In 2015, this figure has depressed to 36 percent.

* Younger viewers are relocating divided from DVR observation to VOD and streaming video, while people aged 50 and comparison are display increasing DVR usage.

* Broadcast-only homes but Internet now comment for 5.2 percent of U.S. households contra 4.6 percent final year. “That is good for broadcasters” as they are losing wire foe and have no new Internet competition, Poltrack said.